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Consider an experiment in which you want to upgrade something to a certain level, and a trial consists of spending as much zeny/kp/ores/equips as it takes until you succeed. This calculator tells you the average amount of each resource spent as the number of trials approaches infinity.
Note: The calculator restricts outputs to a maximum of five decimal places and also changes all digits beyond the nine most significant to zeroes. Nonetheless, because of the nature of the computation and the limitations of floating point precision/arithmetic, errors can be noticeable—sometimes dramatically so for sufficiently large output values. A realistic example: the difference between reported and actual expected equipment cost for +20/regular/premium/armor is about 4.3 billion; however, it's sobering to realize that that's an error of less than 0.02%. All bets are off, though, if you do silly things like trying to upgrade to +20 after entering 10% for every level.
| level | upgrade using... | no risk | success rate (%) | zeny cost | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regular/hd | enriched | reg/enr | hd | |||
| +0 → +1 | ||||||
| +1 → +2 | ||||||
| +2 → +3 | ||||||
| +3 → +4 | ||||||
| +4 → +5 | ||||||
| +5 → +6 | ||||||
| +6 → +7 | ||||||
| +7 → +8 | ||||||
| +8 → +9 | ||||||
| +9 → +10 | ||||||
| +10 → +11 | ||||||
| +11 → +12 | ||||||
| +12 → +13 | ||||||
| +13 → +14 | ||||||
| +14 → +15 | ||||||
| +15 → +16 | ||||||
| +16 → +17 | ||||||
| +17 → +18 | ||||||
| +18 → +19 | ||||||
| +19 → +20 | ||||||
refine from:
to
| average spent | sensitivity to round-off errors (smaller is better) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regular | high-density | enriched | kafra points | equipment | zeny | |||
| ≤ +10 | ≥ +11 | ≤ +10 | ≥ +11 | |||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |